Will Michigan’s Warm Lakes Mean More Snow? There’s a Catch

There are plenty of things Michigan gives us to worry about heading into winter.

The heating bill. That morning commute. Whether that ice scraper is for sure in the back of the car and not hiding somewhere.

The temperature of the Great Lakes belongs on that list too, apparently. But warmer water does not mean that we are about to spend the entire winter digging ourselves out.

What Causes Heavy Lake-Effect Snow in Michigan?

Warm lakes are only part of what makes heavy lake-effect snow happen, according to MLive.

READ MORE: NOAA’s Latest Forecast Just Gave Michigan Hope for a Milder Winter

Cold air is the other ingredient. And a pretty big amount of it.

Lake-effect snow develops when there is a large temperature difference between the lake surface and the air roughly 10,000 feet above it. A bigger difference can cause heavier snow.

Why Warm Great Lakes Don’t Guarantee More Snow

But this being Michigan, there is a catch.

Those lakes are warm because the weather has been warm. If that same pattern stays around into winter, the air might not get cold enough to create that big temperature difference.

Lake Michigan cannot handle the entire snowmaking operation itself, basically.

Things can change if the weather flips suddenly from warm to very cold while the lakes still hold onto their heat. Last winter is an example of that setup producing heavy snow in Michigan's snowbelts.

A gradual cooldown does not necessarily cause the same results, however.

How El Niño Could Affect Michigan’s Winter Snow

As for this winter, we could expect a strong El Niño, which would bring warmer air into Michigan and limit lake-effect snowfall.

Before you start celebrating, that doesn't mean winter isn't happening.

We could still see some freezing temperatures, snowy roads, and mornings spent clearing the driveway.